Archive for October, 2008

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Nine days to go!

Sunday, October 26th, 2008

If you’ve been following the blog, you’ve probably noticed that we haven’t updated in a while. The simple reason for this is that, despite sparse and narrowly focused reports to the contrary, recent polls show that the vast majority of former Hillary Clinton supporters have decided to support Barack Obama. To put it more bluntly, as Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com did last week, “the PUMAs are dead.” Barack Obama now enjoys a slightly higher percentage of support within the Democratic party than John McCain has among Republicans, and given the current trend towards Obama, his numbers may even inch up higher as the remaining undecided voters weigh in on election day.

Since the goal of BeyondHillary.com is to provide information on why Barack Obama is the best choice for Hillary supporters, you can see why we’e had less to say as more and more Clinton supporters moved over to Obama. Of course, there are still a few Clinton supporters who are unwilling to back Obama, but at this point they seem unlikely to impact the final outcome on election day.

So, misson accomplished? Not quite.

We’re very glad that so many Hillary supporters have decided to back Barack. However, because we’re certain that Barack Obama is the right choice in this election, we haven’t achieved our wider goal until he is elected president. The race looks good for him right now, but that doesn’t mean it’s a sure thing until all the votes are counted. With just over a week until election day, there’s still a lot we all can do:

  • Volunteer to call undecided voters, or to help get out the vote on election day. The Obama/Biden website can help you get in touch with a team of volunteers near you.
  • Vote early! In San Francisco, where I live, you can vote early on any day between now and election day, for any reason. Many states allow early voting, so check out the options that are available in your area. Early voting can be very convenient, and it feels great to know you’ve already done your part.
  • Research local races and ballot measures. In many places, there are plenty of races and initiatives to vote on other than the presidential matchup. Your ballot may include national or state congressional races or other measures. If there’s a lot to vote on in your area, it can be fun and helpful to hold a ballot party with friends, where each person researches one or two races and presents both sides of the argument.
  • Talk to your friends and family about the election. Make sure they plan to vote and that they have the information they need to get to their polling place and make an informed decision. And remember, if you know any of the remaining Clinton supporters who are undecided or leaning towards McCain, BeyondHillary.com is a great resource for them!

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Debate preview

Thursday, October 2nd, 2008

As Americans await tonight’s vice presidential debate with unusually high levels of interest, there’s been a lot of hand-wringing in the media that can be summed up as follows:

  • The expectations for Governor Palin’s performance are so low that if she can stand on the stage, smile, and breathe unassisted, she’ll be declared the winner and grab back a bunch of momentum for McCain.
  • Debating a woman is inherently tricky. Senator Biden is likely to mishandle this delicate situation and will come off as a horrible bully, losing votes for Obama.
Of course, if we accept these statements as the big deal they’ve been billed as, things look pretty bleak for Senator Biden. However, while it’s true that the expectations are very low for Palin, and while it has happened at least once that a man debating a woman was criticized for appearing sexist (see: Bush/Ferraro), I really don’t think these issues will shape the entire outcome of the debate or how it affects the candidates’ general standing. Here’s why:
  • Palin has a lot to make up for - Sure, her disappointing performances in recent interviews have served to lower expectations, but they’ve also made people genuinely believe that she isn’t fit to be vice president. Multiple polls currently indicate that people have come to view her as a liability for the McCain ticket. Meeting expectations in the debate might get her declared “the winner” by a few news outlets, but she’ll need much more than that to dispel the worries that have been building for weeks.
  • Biden knows his stuff - He’s said plenty of silly things in the past, but nobody can deny that Joe Biden knows the issues backwards and forwards. And as Slate’s Christopher Beam points out, even when he gaffes, he gets away with it. To me, Biden is like America’s wacky uncle (who also happens to be really, really knowledgeable about foreign policy). A lot of voters have likely never seen Senator Biden speak, and I think they’ll be surprised how articulate and informed he is, while also appreciating his “Amtrak Joe” appeal. Political commentators who already know Biden may not be impressed, but I think plenty of voters will be.
  • Gwen Ifill has a job to do - The debate moderator’s neutrality has been called into question based on the fact that she’s currently working on a book called “The Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama.”  Some people have asserted that this means she’ll stick to softball questions to avoid accusations of bias. However, Ifill has a reputation as a thorough and fair moderator, and it’s not to her benefit to give that up and risk losing gigs like this in the future. The McCain camp may complain regardless of what she does, but they’ve been blaming everyone in sight for unfairness recently, so unless she’s very obviously biased, that’s unlikely to stick. 
  • Sexism won’t make the difference - Even if Biden does come off as sexist, that’s not going to make or break the election. The media and the McCain campaign would certainly pounce on it and have a great time, but I really don’t think it would lose Obama many votes. The short reason for this is that almost nobody is actually going to change their mind about the election based on sexism in a VP debate. In the face of the war and the economic crisis, it just won’t be a top issue. Plus, since people have claimed that basically everything dealing with Sarah Palin from her nomination on has been sexist, the word has pretty much lost its teeth, at least in terms of this election.
It’s in the media’s interest to drum up excitement for the debate and get people to watch. Assuming both campaigns are still feeling good about their VP candidates (more doubtful in McCain’s case as even Republicans are beginning to doubt Palin’s qualifications), it’s also in their interest to drive ratings and help spread the word. However, the fact of the matter is that the debate is unlikely to be dramatic or even decisive. Barring a real shocker, the media will probably come out fairly split on the outcome as both campaigns declare victory. If there’s any real effect, we’ll see it in a few days when Obama’s gains in the polls either slow down or speed up. But remember that there are still two more presidential debates in the works, which are very likely to trump any effects from tonight.
Bonus: There are two things that could potentially happen tonight that actually would affect the election. Neither of them is up to Joe Biden. They are:
  • Resounding Palin victory - Either she suddenly becomes way more articulate and informed than she has ever appeared to be, or Biden gaffes and she capitalizes brilliantly. If she could pull off a genuinely strong performance, I do think she would win back a lot of the respect she has lost, and some momentum for McCain. Maybe they wouldn’t break even yet, but it could help. However, based on what I know I think this is highly unlikely. I just don’t think Palin has the knowledge to pull it off.
  • Palin meltdown - She totally flunks one or more questions and gets called on it in a decisive but non-aggressive manner. If she solidly loses this debate, she becomes even more of a liability and McCain is done. I don’t think this outcome is much more likely than the previous one, though. Governor Palin does not know her stuff, but she’s very good at grinning and rambling through questions she can’t really answer.

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