Nine days to go!

Posted October 26th, 2008 by Joanna
Categories: Uncategorized

If you’ve been following the blog, you’ve probably noticed that we haven’t updated in a while. The simple reason for this is that, despite sparse and narrowly focused reports to the contrary, recent polls show that the vast majority of former Hillary Clinton supporters have decided to support Barack Obama. To put it more bluntly, as Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com did last week, “the PUMAs are dead.” Barack Obama now enjoys a slightly higher percentage of support within the Democratic party than John McCain has among Republicans, and given the current trend towards Obama, his numbers may even inch up higher as the remaining undecided voters weigh in on election day.

Since the goal of BeyondHillary.com is to provide information on why Barack Obama is the best choice for Hillary supporters, you can see why we’e had less to say as more and more Clinton supporters moved over to Obama. Of course, there are still a few Clinton supporters who are unwilling to back Obama, but at this point they seem unlikely to impact the final outcome on election day.

So, misson accomplished? Not quite.

We’re very glad that so many Hillary supporters have decided to back Barack. However, because we’re certain that Barack Obama is the right choice in this election, we haven’t achieved our wider goal until he is elected president. The race looks good for him right now, but that doesn’t mean it’s a sure thing until all the votes are counted. With just over a week until election day, there’s still a lot we all can do:

  • Volunteer to call undecided voters, or to help get out the vote on election day. The Obama/Biden website can help you get in touch with a team of volunteers near you.
  • Vote early! In San Francisco, where I live, you can vote early on any day between now and election day, for any reason. Many states allow early voting, so check out the options that are available in your area. Early voting can be very convenient, and it feels great to know you’ve already done your part.
  • Research local races and ballot measures. In many places, there are plenty of races and initiatives to vote on other than the presidential matchup. Your ballot may include national or state congressional races or other measures. If there’s a lot to vote on in your area, it can be fun and helpful to hold a ballot party with friends, where each person researches one or two races and presents both sides of the argument.
  • Talk to your friends and family about the election. Make sure they plan to vote and that they have the information they need to get to their polling place and make an informed decision. And remember, if you know any of the remaining Clinton supporters who are undecided or leaning towards McCain, BeyondHillary.com is a great resource for them!

Debate preview

Posted October 2nd, 2008 by Joanna
Categories: Uncategorized

As Americans await tonight’s vice presidential debate with unusually high levels of interest, there’s been a lot of hand-wringing in the media that can be summed up as follows:

  • The expectations for Governor Palin’s performance are so low that if she can stand on the stage, smile, and breathe unassisted, she’ll be declared the winner and grab back a bunch of momentum for McCain.
  • Debating a woman is inherently tricky. Senator Biden is likely to mishandle this delicate situation and will come off as a horrible bully, losing votes for Obama.
Of course, if we accept these statements as the big deal they’ve been billed as, things look pretty bleak for Senator Biden. However, while it’s true that the expectations are very low for Palin, and while it has happened at least once that a man debating a woman was criticized for appearing sexist (see: Bush/Ferraro), I really don’t think these issues will shape the entire outcome of the debate or how it affects the candidates’ general standing. Here’s why:
  • Palin has a lot to make up for - Sure, her disappointing performances in recent interviews have served to lower expectations, but they’ve also made people genuinely believe that she isn’t fit to be vice president. Multiple polls currently indicate that people have come to view her as a liability for the McCain ticket. Meeting expectations in the debate might get her declared “the winner” by a few news outlets, but she’ll need much more than that to dispel the worries that have been building for weeks.
  • Biden knows his stuff - He’s said plenty of silly things in the past, but nobody can deny that Joe Biden knows the issues backwards and forwards. And as Slate’s Christopher Beam points out, even when he gaffes, he gets away with it. To me, Biden is like America’s wacky uncle (who also happens to be really, really knowledgeable about foreign policy). A lot of voters have likely never seen Senator Biden speak, and I think they’ll be surprised how articulate and informed he is, while also appreciating his “Amtrak Joe” appeal. Political commentators who already know Biden may not be impressed, but I think plenty of voters will be.
  • Gwen Ifill has a job to do - The debate moderator’s neutrality has been called into question based on the fact that she’s currently working on a book called “The Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama.”  Some people have asserted that this means she’ll stick to softball questions to avoid accusations of bias. However, Ifill has a reputation as a thorough and fair moderator, and it’s not to her benefit to give that up and risk losing gigs like this in the future. The McCain camp may complain regardless of what she does, but they’ve been blaming everyone in sight for unfairness recently, so unless she’s very obviously biased, that’s unlikely to stick. 
  • Sexism won’t make the difference - Even if Biden does come off as sexist, that’s not going to make or break the election. The media and the McCain campaign would certainly pounce on it and have a great time, but I really don’t think it would lose Obama many votes. The short reason for this is that almost nobody is actually going to change their mind about the election based on sexism in a VP debate. In the face of the war and the economic crisis, it just won’t be a top issue. Plus, since people have claimed that basically everything dealing with Sarah Palin from her nomination on has been sexist, the word has pretty much lost its teeth, at least in terms of this election.
It’s in the media’s interest to drum up excitement for the debate and get people to watch. Assuming both campaigns are still feeling good about their VP candidates (more doubtful in McCain’s case as even Republicans are beginning to doubt Palin’s qualifications), it’s also in their interest to drive ratings and help spread the word. However, the fact of the matter is that the debate is unlikely to be dramatic or even decisive. Barring a real shocker, the media will probably come out fairly split on the outcome as both campaigns declare victory. If there’s any real effect, we’ll see it in a few days when Obama’s gains in the polls either slow down or speed up. But remember that there are still two more presidential debates in the works, which are very likely to trump any effects from tonight.
Bonus: There are two things that could potentially happen tonight that actually would affect the election. Neither of them is up to Joe Biden. They are:
  • Resounding Palin victory - Either she suddenly becomes way more articulate and informed than she has ever appeared to be, or Biden gaffes and she capitalizes brilliantly. If she could pull off a genuinely strong performance, I do think she would win back a lot of the respect she has lost, and some momentum for McCain. Maybe they wouldn’t break even yet, but it could help. However, based on what I know I think this is highly unlikely. I just don’t think Palin has the knowledge to pull it off.
  • Palin meltdown - She totally flunks one or more questions and gets called on it in a decisive but non-aggressive manner. If she solidly loses this debate, she becomes even more of a liability and McCain is done. I don’t think this outcome is much more likely than the previous one, though. Governor Palin does not know her stuff, but she’s very good at grinning and rambling through questions she can’t really answer.

If you can’t say anything nice…

Posted September 24th, 2008 by Joanna
Categories: Uncategorized

Today, CNN’s Campbell Brown elicited a mixture of cheers and rage with her strongly-worded assertion that the way the McCain campaign is treating Sarah Palin is sexist. The campaign is hardly allowing Governor Palin to speak to the media, Brown argues, because they unfairly believe that as a woman she is too fragile to stand up to questioning.

If you read the statement, maybe you’ll agree with me that, whatever she really thinks on this topic, Ms. Brown’s main goal with her statement was to drive an explosive reader reaction and rake in the resulting pageviews. Either way, her support of her point is extremely weak. In fact, while it’s certainly true that the McCain camp is doing all it can to keep Palin under wraps, there’s no evidence whatsoever to suggest that this is due to sexism, and Brown hasn’t managed to find any to show us. Just saying the campaign is sexist doesn’t make it so. As I see it, sexism isn’t the issue here, but Palin’s lack of public exposure is a symptom of other critical problems for the McCain campaign.

To start with, there’s the fact that Sarah Palin isn’t qualified to be the Vice President of the United States. She lacks the knowledge, the experience and the judgment required to run the most powerful country on earth should the need arise. This is effectively demonstrated by, among other things, the fact that she lacks the skills and judgment required to get through public appearances without major gaffes. The few times we’ve seen Governor Palin take questions in public she has faltered through them, her few real political convictions liberally mixed with non-answers and lies. If I had a running mate (male or female) whose post-appearance reviews ranged from the biting “visibly nervous” to the derisive “dribbling and dribbling the ball but refusing to take the shot,” I wouldn’t let that person out in public much either.

And there’s another problem which is becoming more and more apparent as the economy slides downhill: Sarah Palin’s policies are (in most respects) the same as John McCain’s policies, and John McCain’s policies are really not what Americans want right now. McCain is the guy who, in face of an economy that is depriving many members of the middle class of their jobs and homes, wants to pile on tax cuts for the very rich, with minimal relief for working Americans. He also wants to keep fighting a war that has cost the country nearly two trillion dollars, even though nearly all political leaders agree it’s time for an exit strategy. If Palin busts through her stage fright and starts talking policy, she’ll just be parroting more of the same (except for her pet cause of Arctic drilling, which isn’t a crowd-pleaser in the lower 48 the way it is in Alaska). If she stays quiet, there’s always the chance that the public will think she’s mysterious rather than realizing she’s just bad news.

So Sarah Palin is keeping out of the public eye as much as possible, but it’s not sexism so much as a defense mechanism. Want more proof? As of today, John McCain is making a retreat as well. To the great surprise of pretty much everyone, today Senator McCain declared that he was suspending his campaign to return to the Senate to help work out a resolution to the Wall Street bailout. While this may sound like a great idea on paper, it’s definitely out of character for the Senate’s most absent member, and other Senators have responded by indicating that they have the matter under control without his contribution. Since it seems unlikely that McCain’s sudden presence in the Senate will make or break the deal (and thus unlikely that he would think he could make the difference), it’s much more plausible that there’s another reason for the move.

I see two possible explanations for the maneuver. Either this is an act of penance by the man who just days ago asserted that “the fundamentals of the economy are strong,” trying to prove that he can take the financial crisis seriously after all, or McCain simply doesn’t think the time and place are right for a debate this Friday. Either way, he’s motivated more by a desire to pull himself together and win this election than by a new-found concern for our houses and jobs.

In the face of McCain’s flailing, Barack Obama has kept his cool. Rather than dropping everything and running to Washington, he has expressed his intention to keep campaigning while also remaining alert in case leaders in Washington believe he can do more good there than on the trail. Earlier today, he issued a statement saying, “It is my belief that this is exactly the time when the American people need to hear from the person who, in approximately 40 days, will be responsible for dealing with this mess,” and that “It is going to be part of the president’s job to deal with more than one thing at once.” He’s exactly right. The election will go on in November, and it will decide the fate of the country for the next four years. The bailout plan is very important, but it is under control in the Senate. There are many capable people who can work together to reach a decision on the plan, but only Barack Obama and John McCain are running for president.

Americans need information about the candidates in order to make informed decisions in November. With every appearance he cancels and every debate he postpones, John McCain denies voters of an opportunity to get to know him and his policies. Why do this, unless he is deeply afraid they won’t like what they see?

Oh, and what about Sarah Palin? This evening CNN ran a little item saying that if the presidential debate is delayed, the VP debate “would be rescheduled for a date yet to be determined,” which may or may not be a code word for “never.” Because if you can’t say anything nice, you can always hope you won’t need to say anything at all.

Link: What the poll numbers really mean

Posted September 22nd, 2008 by Joanna
Categories: Uncategorized

This will be a quick update, since I’m just catching up after a few days of travel, but I wanted to let everybody know about a great site that was sent to me. The site is fivethirtyeight.com, and it’s an election poll tracking site put together by a man who analyzes baseball stats for a living.

The great thing about this site is that it not only aggregates results from all the top polls, it also analyzes what each batch of numbers actually means in terms of electoral votes. Most of the national news outlets focus on nationwide percentages when reporting on poll results, but those aren’t necessarily meaningful in terms of who will win the election. Some websites, like the New York Times and Slate.com, do have Electoral College tracking maps, but the data at fivethirtyeight.com is the most detailed I’ve seen and their analysis methods are transparent and rigorous. And it’s updated daily!

Right now, the site shows a strong lead for Obama in the Electoral College, though his lead in the popular vote remains pretty slim. I encourage everyone who hasn’t seen this site already to click on over and have a look. If we have any statisticians out there, feel free to let us know what you think of their method. Or, if you know of another site you think is useful to people trying to understand the polls, please suggest it in the comments.

On neighbors

Posted September 13th, 2008 by Joanna
Categories: Uncategorized

Because I don’t think anybody has pointed this out yet, I’m tossing out a slightly cantankerous bonus post today.

In her interview with Charles Gibson, Governor Palin stated that you can see Russia from land in Alaska, meaning that “they’re our nextdoor neighbors.” I’m sure it’s true that you can see Russia from Alaska on a clear day. They’re not too far apart. However, the part of Russia that you can see from Alaska isn’t the part of Russia that has many people in it. According to a population density map I found online, the part of Russia closest to Alaska has a population somewhere between zero and ten people per square kilometer. The eastern portion of the country, where the capital is, is much more populous.

This is part of the reason why Governor Palin has no diplomatic relationship with Russia. How well do you know your neighbors when your front window looks out on the back of their three billion acre estate?

A few hundred words on Sarah Palin’s first interview

Posted September 13th, 2008 by Joanna
Categories: Uncategorized

Good afternoon, BeyondHillary.com readers!

Did everybody have a chance to watch Sarah Palin’s interview with Charles Gibson yesterday and the day before? If not, it’s up on YouTube, so head on over and check it out. I’ve linked to the first segment below, and you can link to later segments after you finish watching it.

Sarah Palin Interview, Part One

For me, one of the most interesting quotes came near the end of the interview, when Governor Palin was asked about Hillary Clinton. In response to a question about whether Senator Obama should have chosen Senator Clinton as his running mate, she replied that she thinks “he’s regrettin’ not picking her now.”

This may or may not be true. For my part, I think that for all the lack of media fanfare around him, Senator Biden has a lot to offer to the ticket (for one example, check out his compassionate and well-reasoned stance on abortion as quoted in the New York Times Caucus Blog). Can he do more than Senator Clinton? I don’t know, but we can trust him to do what he was brought on board for. However, I know who certainly isn’t regretting that Senator Clinton didn’t end up on the Democratic ticket, and that’s Governor Palin herself, who owes her entire presence on the national stage to Senator Clinton’s absence.

As I watched the interview, particularly the foreign policy segment, I saw a visibly nervous Governor Palin half-answering and dodging her way through question after question. When asked about foreign policy experience, she answered with energy independence. When pressed for more detail she would repeat previous answers nearly verbatim. To me, this says that not only does she not know enough on these subjects to give comprehensive answers, she also knows she doesn’t know enough to give good answers, but thinks that maybe she can get away with it if she skirts those topics nimbly enough.

We’ve seen her political resume and we know it’s somewhat shorter than usual. Now we’ve seen her speak without a script and can tell that she is, in fact, uncomfortably uninformed on several key issues but ready to dodge and bluff rather than admit there’s anything she doesn’t know. This is not a person who is ready to hold the second most powerful job in the country. As her potential qualifications wear thinner, it becomes moe and more clear that McCain choosing her likely was little more than a transparent play for the many voters, especially women, who supported Senator Clinton.

To anybody who looks at this closely, the idea that Governor Palin is a good consolation prize for Clinton supporters is shocking. Her experience pales next to Senator Clinton’s, and her policies are nearly a polar opposite, especially (ironically) on women’s issues. Senator Clinton fought hard for the Democratic nomination with a solid and well-defined platform that she articulated clearly and defended with strong and well-informed arguments. Governor Palin can speak with confidence on only a small fraction of these issues.

If Senator Clinton were on the ticket, we can be sure that Governor Palin would be nowhere to be seen–she’d fall apart in a debate against a VP nominee Clinton, who would remind people that women have made it as far as they have in politics not by touting their hockey mom credentials but rather by taking an intelligent and informed stand on the issues. However, with Hillary Clinton out of the picture, John McCain picked Sarah Palin over a handful of men and women with stronger leadership qualifications because he thinks it’s fine to sub in any woman he likes for Senator Clinton and expect women to vote for her.

After the ABC interviews, I think the choice is clearer than ever. It’s time for Clinton supporters to say a real “thanks but no thanks” to Governor Palin. Maybe she can look us in the eye and say she’s ready, but I can look right back and say “I know Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton represented my party and my interests. Governor, you’re no Hillary Clinton.”

Please talk to your friends about where Governor Palin stands on the issues, and pass on BeyondHillary.com, if you haven’t already. If we keep the focus on the issues, we can help elect the candidate who best represents what Senator Clinton and her supporters stand for: Barack Obama.

BeyondHillary.com blog launched!

Posted September 11th, 2008 by Joanna
Categories: Uncategorized

Hi everybody!

My name is Joanna, and I’m a founder and writer here at BeyondHillary.com. We’ve had the site up and running for a little over a week now, and we’re excited to see more and more traffic coming in. Thanks to everyone who’s stopped by so far, especially those of you who have helped spread the word to the people you know, we’ve already reached thousands of voters!

To keep things current on the site and provide a forum where we can post our thoughts and discuss with our readers, we’re adding this blog to the site. We’ll use the blog to report and comment on current events, including the role Senator Clinton takes as the election wears on as well as any exciting moves by the current candidates.

We’re always open to suggestions, and would love to get your input on the blog and our site in general. If there’s a topic you’d like to see covered here, or if you have a short post you’d like to contribute, please send us an email at contact@beyondhillary.com. While we may not be able to fulfill every request, we’ll read and consider every suggestion we receive.

I look forward to hearing from you guys via email and in the comments. I hope to be back online with comments on Governor Palin’s interviews once I watch the second installment tomorrow, but in the meantime, we’ll leave comments open for any of you who want to post what you thought of her showing tonight.

Talk to you soon!

Joanna